The incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP), has been projected to win in the three main swing regions like Greater Accra, Central and Western Regions with barely three days to the 2020 General Elections.
According to Pollster Ben Ephson, the expected turnout for the December 7 polls is about 85% and should that happen, the NPP can exceed the 52% win projected for the party.
The pollster, who doubles as the Editor for the Daily Dispatch Newspaper, had earlier predicted in an interview with Angel 102.9FM that Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party will win with 52.6% and John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) will also garner 45.7%.
Speaking to Captain Smart on ‘An)pa B)fo)’ the morning show on Friday, December 4, 2020, Mr. Ephson said that “the NPP will win in the following swing regions: Greater Accra, Central, and Western”.
He added that “the NPP will also win in the three Brong Ahafo Regions [namely Bono, Bono East, and Ahafo]. [With] all this, apart from Greater Accra Region, the margins will not be like 2016 and Nana Addo could even exceed our projections of 52 percent if NPP voters turn out to vote in Accra”.
Meanwhile, some surveys have also predicted a win for President Nana Addo and the NPP in the coming elections, including research conducted by the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana which has proven that NPP is likely to win the December 7 polls.
Touching on the Northern Region, Ben Ephson stated that it is an NDC stronghold but when the NPP performs well in the region, the election swings in their favour.
“In 2004, Kuffuor had 36.2%, the NDC’s margin of victory was 156 but Kuffuor still won because he fared well in the other regions… in 2012, NPP had 39.1% and NDC 58% which culminated in Mahama’s victory in the first round”, he said.
While noting that political analyses are relevant, the 20-year-experienced pollster revealed that he was shocked that people asked him why his predictions failed in the 2016 presidential and parliamentary elections. He said that even some pollsters in the U.S.A also get their predictions wrong.
Ben Ephson further underscored that businessmen are always eager to know which party will win in order to secure their business fortunes.
“There are some businessmen whose businesses will flourish under any of the political parties and are therefore willing to finance both parties [NPP and NDC]. However, they tend to sponsor the party which is likely to win the presidential elections more by a ratio of 60:40 or 70:30”.